Monday, June 08, 2009

What you should have voted to keep the BNP out

Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but too many people have been stupidly talking up the BNPs chances to the point of self-fullfilling prophecy - often in a genuine attempt to keep them out, but sometimes to frighten their own disillusioned supporters into turning out. The one thing the BNP had none of the resources to do - a get the vote out operation - was done for them by their opponents.

But what I want to do here is look at who, with the benefit of hindsight, the anti-BNP voter should have voted for. Mostly to shame everybody else who claimed it could only be them.

So in Yorkshire, that is Labour, who could have beaten the BNP to the last seat with an extra 10270 votes. The Greens would have needed 15684, UKIP 26528 and others more.

In the North West, UKIP would have needed only 2448 more votes to beat the BNP, the Greens 4961 more, the Lib Dems 28549 votes, and others more.

In regions where the BNP failed we can see who took the last seat, and see how many votes ahead of the BNP they were.

In East Midlands, this is the Lib Dems 45109 votes to the good of the BNP.

In East of England, this is UKIP, second seat 59947 votes ahead of the BNP.

In London, the Conservatives are 73259 ahead of the BNP with their 3rd seat.

In the North East, the Lib Dems are 50944 ahead of the BNP.

In Scotland, Labour (2nd seat) are 87779.5 ahead of the BNP.

In the South East, the Lib Dems (2nd seat) are 63401 ahead of the BNP.

In the South West, the Conservatives (3rd seat) are 95358 ahead of the BNP.

In Wales, UKIP are 50471 ahead of the BNP.

In the West Midlands, UKIP (2nd seat) are 28268 ahead of the BNP.

What can we learn from this? Mostly that it is guesswork, and you are best off just voting for whoever you actually support. But perhaps these things can be predicted. To vote otherwise just because somebody is only 50,000 ahead of the BNP seems unreasonable. But could the results in Yorkshire and the North West have been predicted and prevented? Not without vastly more accurate polling, region by region, than we had. Who would pay for such polling, and would we trust it? Based on the polling we had, my calculations suggested that the Lib Dems, Labour or the Tories would be the best bet to beat the BNP in the North West, not, as it turned out, UKIP and the Greens.

And the best tactical voting strategy in the world wouldn't compensate for another 0.5% vote going to the fascists.

So maybe instead our non-fascist political class just needs to get out on the streets and argue its corner a bit more. To make a case for liberty, tolerance and human rights. To think twice about adding more layers of distance, obfuscation and technocracy between the people and their public services. Not just to tell people that they don't have to be evil to have a voice and a stake in society, but to make sure that it's true. And when people choose to be evil anyway, to oppose and defy them at every turn.


Anonymous said...

I've been thinking about the BNP & how they are ( quite rightly ) dismissed as fascists by the mainstream parties & most of the media.

Then I started thinking about how Neo Labour were not fascists or nasty racists, yet still lead Britain into an illegal attack on Iraq, resulting in the deaths of an estimated 1 million plus, etc.

Then I thought about the legacy of Margaret Thatcher & how her policies paved the way for the moral desert Britain now inhabits.

It wasn't long before I came to the conclusion that it's not a minority of bullying racist thugs in politics that we should be worried about, anymore than claiming for a duck island should outrage the tax payer more than a several billion pound strike on Iraq.

My conclusion is that, whether the public votes Labour, Tory or Nazi, they will be ignored, lied to & robbed of their money...and undoubtedly they'll deserve it, because the public continue to care more about their pockets than any other issue.

Anonymous said...

Crikey you've been doing some serious maths! Very nice work.

rantersparadise said...

Agree Anonymous.

I'm exhausted by going on to people how they are to blame for the mess we're in because they are too f*cking lazy to read policies and understand, that it's the economy...stupid!